Can you believe that the last time we took stock of the open seat situation in the House of Representatives was on November 10th? With news of the shocking retirement of GOP Rep. Jim Walsh leaking today, it’s time to take another look. A lot has changed on the House scene since November, with the retirements of Reps. McCrery, Peterson, Ferguson, Doolittle, Lantos and of course, Walsh; the resignations of Reps. Baker and Wicker; and the death of Rep. Julia Carson.
Following the format of the previous installments in this series, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-02 | Everett | R | R+13.2 | 71 | Retiring |
| AZ-01 | Renzi | R | R+2.2 | 50 | Retiring |
| CA-04 | Doolittle | R | R+10.9 | 58 | Retiring |
| CA-12 | Lantos | D | D+22.5 | 80 | Retiring |
| CA-52 | Hunter | R | R+9.3 | 60 | Running for President |
| CO-02 | Udall | D | D+8.1 | 58 | Running for Senate |
| CO-06 | Tancredo | R | R+10 | 62 | Running for President |
| IL-11 | Weller | R | R+1.1 | 51 | Retiring |
| IL-14 | Hastert | R | R+4.8 | 67 | Retiring* |
| IL-18 | LaHood | R | R+5.5 | 62 | Retiring |
| IN-07 | Carson | D | D+8.7 | 70 | Deceased* |
| LA-01 | Jindal | R | R+18.5 | 37 | Elected Governor* |
| LA-04 | McCrery | R | R+6.5 | 59 | Retiring |
| LA-06 | Baker | R | R+6.5 | 60 | Cashing In* |
| ME-01 | Allen | D | D+6.2 | 63 | Running for Senate |
| MN-03 | Ramstad | R | R+0.5 | 62 | Retiring (?) |
| MS-01 | Wicker | R | R+10.0 | 57 | Appointed to the Senate* |
| MS-03 | Pickering | R | R+14.1 | 45 | Retiring |
| NJ-03 | Saxton | R | D+3.3 | 60 | Retiring |
| NJ-07 | Ferguson | R | R+0.6 | 38 | Retiring |
| NM-01 | Wilson | R | D+2.4 | 47 | Running for Senate |
| NM-02 | Pearce | R | R+5.7 | 61 | Running for Senate |
| NM-03 | Udall | D | D+5.5 | 60 | Running for Senate |
| NY-21 | McNulty | D | D+8.7 | 61 | Retiring |
| NY-25 | Walsh | R | D+3.4 | 61 | Retiring |
| OH-07 | Hobson | R | R+6.0 | 72 | Retiring |
| OH-15 | Pryce | R | R+1.1 | 57 | Retiring |
| OH-16 | Regula | R | R+3.6 | 84 | Retiring |
| PA-05 | Peterson | R | R+9.7 | 69 | Retiring |
| WY-AL | Cubin | R | R+19.4 | 61 | Retiring |
*Denotes impending special election
That adds up to a whopping 24 House retirements or resignations for Republicans. It should be noted that at this point in the 2006, there were only 13 announced retirements by GOP House incumbents. February and March still offer some time for more House crumb-bums to cut their political careers mercifully short, and I expect that a few will follow the recent example of Reps. McCrery, Baker, and Walsh. Perhaps a few of their names might even be found in the list below…
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Young | R | R+14.3 | 75 | Under investigation |
| CA-24 | Gallegly | R | R+4.8 | 64 | Botched a retirement attempt in 2006 |
| CA-41 | Lewis | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Under investigation |
| CO-05 | Lamborn | R | R+15.7 | 54 | Primary challenge |
| DE-AL | Castle | R | D+6.5 | 69 | Health issues |
| FL-10 | Young | R | D+1.1 | 78 | Age issues/Speculation |
| GA-10 | Broun | R | R+12.7 | 61 | Primary challenge |
| IA-03 | Boswell | D | D+1.4 | 74 | Health issues/Primary challenge |
| IL-03 | Lipinski | D | D+10.3 | 42 | Primary challenge |
| LA-02 | Jefferson | D | D+27.8 | 61 | Indicted |
| MD-01 | Gilchrest | R | R+9.8 | 62 | Primary challenge |
| MD-04 | Wynn | D | D+29.8 | 57 | Primary challenge |
| MD-06 | Bartlett | R | R+12.8 | 82 | Age issues |
| MO-06 | Graves | R | R+4.8 | 44 | Potential gubernatorial run |
| MO-08 | Emerson | R | R+11.0 | 58 | Potential gubernatorial run |
| MO-09 | Hulshof | R | R+6.5 | 50 | Potential gubernatorial run |
| MI-03 | Ehlers | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Speculation |
| NC-09 | Myrick | R | R+12.2 | 67 | Speculation |
| NY-23 | McHugh | R | R+0.2 | 60 | Speculation |
| OH-02 | Schmidt | R | R+13.1 | 56 | Primary challenge |
| TN-09 | Cohen | D | D+18.1 | 59 | Primary challenge |
| TX-04 | Hall | R | R+17.1 | 85 | Age issues/Primary challenge |
| VA-11 | Davis | R | R+0.6 | 59 | Mulling retirement |
You may have noticed that I included crumb-bum Bill Young, despite the Congressman’s recent signals that he’ll run again. I suspect that old Bill has a trick up his sleeve, and might surprise us by retiring after the filing deadline closes, leaving his wife or some other hand-picked successor to have a cakewalk election. In short: I don’t trust this jerk. He’s staying on the list.
He’s a much better match for his district (voting wise) than Harold Ford ever was. If he gets voted out it will be racism, pure and simple. Damn that identity politics.
Are Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter still retiring, now that they aren’t running for president?
I think you’re right on with Young. His “I am running unless I say I am not running” was not nearly as definitive as it is being portrayed in the realm of the political junkie.
Has anyone heard rumors that John Shadegg in Arizona-3 is considering retirement as well. It looks like he’s was just caught with some shady PAC money transfers (had to give back $10K or something like that)…and now the FEC is going to investigate. Sounds like it would be a good time to give the private sector a whirl, if you ask me.
cross him off the list
From the Columbia Missourian
I’m pretty sure that Jo Ann Emerson (R-Cape Girardeau) will not run against Peter Kinder (R-Cape Girardeau). Especially since it’s a bit embarassing to give up your seat and finish third or worse in a primary.
Plus, MO-8 might be slightly in play due to some deeply Democratic areas being in the district (such areas which usually vote for the Emersons because they’re smart enough at politics to impress those people)
Most of this is utterly unfounded, but here’s some additional names to chew on…
CA-19 Radanovich – There was some retirement speculation in 2004, but then I didnt hear a peep more about it in 2006. Who knows where his head is at?
CA-25 McKeon – There was slight speculation very early in the run-up to 2006 about McKeon also but then it seemed to go away. Wouldn’t be surprised at all though if he was another out-of-the-blue anouncement.
CA-42/44 – Miller or Calvert take your pick. Both have had major corruption issues of a local nature in the last few years. Miller’s legal problems are probably the more serious of the two. I only include them because of the massive local in-district bad corruption press they’ve garnered. I haven’t heard any retirement rumors though and this one is probably wishful thinking. CA files first week of March.
CT-04 Shays – Remember he got all petulant last summer and threatened publicly to resign if he didn’t get to become the ranking member on his committee? What an ass. Add to that he’s facing a very tough race, while just barely surviving 06. Any Congressman who publicly threatens to resign in a high profile way like he did is highly suspect that he really wants to stay. He may well be out the door. CT Filing/Endorsement is around mid-May.
FL-08 Keller – Repeated talk about the DCCC trying to “push him towards making that retirement decision”. Those kinds of unattributed quotes by the DCCC in the press usually mean that he has already privately mentioned to enough people that he’s wavering and may get out. I think there might be something here? Keller has till May 8th to make up his mind.
IA-04 Latham – Harkins senate challenge? It’s getting almost too late for Latham if he’s planning on doing a senate run but stranger things have happened. IA files March 14.
KY-04 Rogers – Lots and lots of speculation on the KY Dem blogs at the beginning of the 06 cycle only to have old Hal finally say that yes, he was running. It really did seem like he was undecided for quite a while. Will 08 be the year that he does finally ride off after 28 years? KY files this Tuesday. It’s time now old fella. Tomorrow night is usually the best time to put out the news you wish you didn’t have to.
MI-09 Knollenberg – I only have that there has been written speculation, he’ll be 74 yrs old, and he faces a tough challenger in Peters. As far as the speculation goes though, sometimes where there’s smoke there’s fire. MI files in May.
MO-09 Hulshof – He’s mentioned above, but this afternoon/evening we are seeing tons of stories indicating that things are moving very quickly now regarding Hulshof. MO files on 3/25 but we’ll likely know about MO-09 well before that.
NC-06 Coble and VA-10 Wolf – Coble’s a 77 year old backbencher, and Wolf is extremely moribund 69 yr old backbencher in a quickly blueing Northern Virginia. I got nothin else. A retirement announcement from either of these guys would not be a major surprise and would probably elicit a yawn from almost everybody. NC files end of Feb, VA files mid April.
VA-11 Davis. He is also already listed above, but quite a lot has happened since the October story linked next to him above. Since October his wife was soundly defeated in the State Senate despite all the Davis machinery and money. Multiple long-time staff have announced they are leaving, he’s closing area offices, he’s in open war with the the VA Rep party, etc, etc, etc,. There have been many telltale signs in the last 3-4 weeks, and it sure as hell looks to everybody in the VA blogosphere that he’s almost all but gone and headed for the lobby shops. A decision to run or not is expected from him within a short time.
WA-04 Hastings – There was some speculation early in the 06 cyle that he wasn’t happy, especially after he got screwed out of his Ethics slot. I think he was a lot closer to retirement in 06 than we probably knew. However, since the departure of Hastings nemesis, Tom DeLay, that talk has definitely quieted. But you never know if it wasn’t just DeLay and not other factors in addition. It wouldn’t be a total surprise if the 67 yr old bailed out. Hastings has until June to announce if he’s running.
A lot of this is absolutely a stretch, but hey, what’s more fun than speculating about Republican retirements?
Well, the last and greatest “surprise” retirement last cycle was Mark Foley, so a few other Reps susceptible to pulling a “Foley” include:
1. David Drier (R-CA)
2. Phil English (R-PA) (if you know what he looks like, you’re probably cringing right now)
3. Patrick McHenry (R-NC)
And of course, in the Senate, Miss Lindsay and Mitch McConnell…
Jim McCrery (R-LA) would be on the list too, but they’re already leaving!
Yes another candidate threw his hat in the ring Tuesday: 2-term Clearfield County commissioner Mark McCracken, a Democrat.
Clearfield County is the next county West of Centre County, toward Ohio. It straddles I-80.
Driving to work earlier this week I heard Matt Shaner, one of the Republicans viewed as a long shot for their nomination, on the radio. It sounded like he is devoting quite a lot of energy to setting up campaign appearances. I must say, he has a disagreeable voice, which won’t help him.
You can add Dave Weldon to the retirement list. I don’t miss him already.